Interactions Between Climate Change, Water Stress and Sustainable Agriculture Practices: An ARDL Approach Modeling

Climate change has emerged as a concern for sustainable agricultural production. Some regions, particularly the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), are exposed to greater climate fluctuations, including decreased rainfall, rising temperatures, and water scarcity. These problems are particularly acute because the region is already arid and experiences high temperatures. This study investigates the interaction between climate change, fertilizer management, water use efficiency, and agriculture in five MENA countries from 2000 to 2022. The study implemented a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) approach to examine the long-run and short-run dynamic impacts of the varying climatic circumstances and sustainable practices on agricultural production. Granger causality tests reveal unidirectional relationships from agricultural production to climatic variables, fertilizer consumption, and water use efficiency, as well as from CO2 emissions to temperature changes and from water stress to fertilizer use. Additionally, a bidirectional relationship between water stress, water use efficiency, and crop production underscores their interdependence. These findings reveal, first, that changes in temperature and precipitation in the short run encourage these countries to adopt climate-resilient crop varieties, which has a positive impact on agricultural production in the long run. Second, water stress plays a crucial role in the effectiveness of fertilizers. Finally, water management and optimal fertilizer consumption are essential to making agriculture more sustainable and profitable.

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